10 Bold Predictions
One post in, and I'm already jacking ideas straight from Fangraphs. Within, you'll find a series of predictions that I think have a small chance of coming true, but are for the most part based in some sort of statistical analysis. I'm not just going to say "Miguel Cabrera will hit 75 home runs" or anything like that. It's also tailored a bit to my home fantasy league. That league, which shares its name with this here blog, is in its fifth season now. The scoring categories skew slightly more sabermetric: batting average and runs are replaced with OBP and SLG%. On the pitching side, we've done away with wins (replaced, due to a better option, with quality starts) and include holds as well as saves. So without further to do, here are my ten bold predictions for the 2017 season:
1. Carlos Martinez finishes as a top-5 SP. I was going to say top-10 but considering he was taken as the 13th starter in the draft, that’s maybe not too bold. To do this he would likely have to be better than one of the established top 5 (Kershaw, Scherzer, Bumgarner, Sale, Syndergaard) along with competitors like Lester, Kluber, Arrieta, Cueto, Verlander, Darvish, Carrasco, and Archer. If he can bring his swinging strike and strikeout rates back to his 2015 levels and make some headway against lefties, against whom put up a .322 wOBA against him in 2016, compared to righties which he crushed to the tune of a .243 wOBA, he could post a low-to- mid 2s ERA with tons of strikeouts.
2. Aaron Sanchez will not be a top 5 pitcher… on the Blue Jays. Sanchez led the AL in ERA amongst qualified starters last season, thanks to his power sinker (generating the 14th -best soft contact %) and newfound ability to throw strikes (46.9 zone%, 17th among qualified starters). However, his first pitch strike percentage falls into just the 61st percentile and his swinging strike percentage was a pathetic 8.2, putting him in the 15th percentile in that category. If he continues to get behind and doesn’t get more whiffs, I could see an increase in walks and a further hit to his already pedestrian k-bb rate of 14%. Don’t be surprised if his ERA is closer to 4 this season than a repeat of his even 3.00 from 2016. All that said, what makes this bold is suggesting that the regression bug bites Sanchez but misses Estrada and Happ, that Stroman and Liriano show big improvements, and that Osuna takes a further step into the realm of elite closers.
3. Rougned Odor is not a top-15 second baseman. Odor had a huge year in 2016, posting 33 homers, 88 RBI and 14 stolen bases while batting .271. Here’s the thing, though: he’s not that good of a hitter. His tendency to try to pull every ball in the air bodes well for his power output, but makes me think he got lucky with his .297 BABIP which was right around the league average of .300. He also has capital-T Terrible plate discipline, as evidenced by his hilariously shitty 3.0% BB rate. He swung at 42% of pitches outside of the strike zone (30% is average) and had a slightly worse than average contact rate which could drop even more with a below average swinging strike rate. All of this evidence suggests downside on his batting average, which along with his utter refusal to walk could drag his already barely-acceptable .296 OBP even further down. Couple that with the fact that his 14 stolen bases came at a paltry 66.7% success rate, he may be get the green light less often the odd time he does manage to get on base.
4. Eric Thames kind of sucks. Having had the pleasure of watching Thames for a hot minute while he was a member of the Blue Jays, a couple of things stuck out: 1) he seemed to genuinely capital-L Love playing baseball for a living, exuding a childlike joy of stepping out on the field every day, and 2) relative to other major league baseball players, he kind of sucked. Fast forward three years and one brilliant stint in Korea, and Thames is back in the majors and sitting atop a few favourite sleeper lists. I’m not buying what he’s selling, though. While he always had decent pop, I doubt his ability to hit major league pitching, and he can’t count on too many 87 MPH centre-cut fastballs in the show. ESPN projects for 27 HR/85 RBI/15 SB/.325 OBP/.464 SLG. I’d bet on something more like 22 HR/68 RBI/5 SB/.295 SLG/.405 SLG, which in today’s power- soaked league isn’t all that great.
5. DJ LeMahieu flirts with a 20/20 season, is a top-3 second baseman. LeMahieu, quietly, is already an elite contact hitter and last year did something most uncommon: he walked more, struck out much less, and hit for more power. Now, “more power” is relative, and we’re talking about a guy who in his quiet breakout 2015 season did so with a puny .087 ISO. Last year he brought that all the way up to .147 on the back of 11 home runs. What I’m predicting is, he starts putting a little more loft on those line drives that he stings into the gaps, and maybe pulls a few more balls in the air. He has the discipline and contact skills to be an elite hitter; it’s just a question of his approach. He may sacrifice some average, but it would be worth it to put him into the elite tier of second basemen. Even then, he’d need some luck plus some regression/injuries to the likes of Altuve, Turner, Murphy, Dozier, and Cano in order to crack the top 3.
6. Carlos Carrasco wins the AL Cy Young. Just about the only thing holding Carrasco back the last couple years has been health, because when he’s on the mound, he’s been among the best pitchers in the game. Among qualified starters over the last two seasons, he’s 6th in K/9, 19th in BB/9, and 13th in GB%. We know that strikeouts are good, keeping the ball on the ground is good, and walks are bad. We know Carrasco is among the best at striking out hitters, limiting walks, and getting ground balls. The kicker is he’s only thrown 330 innings over those two seasons, ranking 12th -worst. His teammate and former Cy Young winner Corey Kluber has thrown over 100 innings more over the same time span. If Carrasco can stay healthy (and I don’t think it’s impossible, considering he’s had a multitude of random injuries, nothing that seems overly chronic) and maybe get a bit of luck in the BABIP and HR/FB departments, he’ll deliver the goods.
7. The year of the middle reliever! The world watched as Cleveland broke all the rules and used logic to dictate their reliever usage in the playoffs last season, riding Andrew Miller’s utter dominance to juuuuuuust about winning the damn World Series. And, baseball being the reactionary game that it is, watch as managers try to emulate that, using multi-inning relief studs in high-leverage situations throughout the season. Watch for guys like Chris Devenski, David Phelps, and Delin Betances to pitch up to or even over 100 innings out of the pen, with devastating ratios and strikeout totals.
8. Bryce Harper hits fewer than 25 home runs and steals fewer than 10 bases. After putting up an all-time great season in 2015, our lord and saviour Jesus H Bryce came back down to Earth in a serious way in 2016, dropping from 42 to 24 homeruns and losing over 200 points off of his slugging percentage in the process. He did swipe a career-high 21 bases, but was also caught on 10 attempts which could portend fewer green lights a la Odor. So if you look at his career, that monster year actually looks like the outlier. So, was 2016 the result of injuries or was it a matter of Harper running face-first into the wall of regression?
9. Lance McCullers leads the AL in strikeouts. Pretty self-explanatory, right? McCullers needs some luck on the health tip, but has the heat (his fastball averaged 94MPH in 2016 and actually trended up as the season went on) and decimating curve (which he throws literally half the time and has an insane 20.5% swinging strike rate) to pile up the ks (11.8 per 9 innings last season). Unfortunately he also walked 5 guys per 9, which coupled with the strikeouts means it's a constant struggle for him to clear five or six innings per start. He also only managed to pitch 81 innings due to shoulder problems, which he'll obviously need to improve upon. Even then, toppling noted K artists like Darvish, Carrasco, Kluber, and Archer could be a tall task.
10. Ryan Schimpf leads the NL in home runs. Look, this probably isn’t going to happen. But what if! Schimpf came out of nowhere (aka the minor leagues) and stormed the league as a 27 year old rookie last year, swatting 20 homers in just 89 games. He can probably keep up a .310 ISO over a full season, right?
1. Carlos Martinez finishes as a top-5 SP. I was going to say top-10 but considering he was taken as the 13th starter in the draft, that’s maybe not too bold. To do this he would likely have to be better than one of the established top 5 (Kershaw, Scherzer, Bumgarner, Sale, Syndergaard) along with competitors like Lester, Kluber, Arrieta, Cueto, Verlander, Darvish, Carrasco, and Archer. If he can bring his swinging strike and strikeout rates back to his 2015 levels and make some headway against lefties, against whom put up a .322 wOBA against him in 2016, compared to righties which he crushed to the tune of a .243 wOBA, he could post a low-to- mid 2s ERA with tons of strikeouts.
2. Aaron Sanchez will not be a top 5 pitcher… on the Blue Jays. Sanchez led the AL in ERA amongst qualified starters last season, thanks to his power sinker (generating the 14th -best soft contact %) and newfound ability to throw strikes (46.9 zone%, 17th among qualified starters). However, his first pitch strike percentage falls into just the 61st percentile and his swinging strike percentage was a pathetic 8.2, putting him in the 15th percentile in that category. If he continues to get behind and doesn’t get more whiffs, I could see an increase in walks and a further hit to his already pedestrian k-bb rate of 14%. Don’t be surprised if his ERA is closer to 4 this season than a repeat of his even 3.00 from 2016. All that said, what makes this bold is suggesting that the regression bug bites Sanchez but misses Estrada and Happ, that Stroman and Liriano show big improvements, and that Osuna takes a further step into the realm of elite closers.
3. Rougned Odor is not a top-15 second baseman. Odor had a huge year in 2016, posting 33 homers, 88 RBI and 14 stolen bases while batting .271. Here’s the thing, though: he’s not that good of a hitter. His tendency to try to pull every ball in the air bodes well for his power output, but makes me think he got lucky with his .297 BABIP which was right around the league average of .300. He also has capital-T Terrible plate discipline, as evidenced by his hilariously shitty 3.0% BB rate. He swung at 42% of pitches outside of the strike zone (30% is average) and had a slightly worse than average contact rate which could drop even more with a below average swinging strike rate. All of this evidence suggests downside on his batting average, which along with his utter refusal to walk could drag his already barely-acceptable .296 OBP even further down. Couple that with the fact that his 14 stolen bases came at a paltry 66.7% success rate, he may be get the green light less often the odd time he does manage to get on base.
4. Eric Thames kind of sucks. Having had the pleasure of watching Thames for a hot minute while he was a member of the Blue Jays, a couple of things stuck out: 1) he seemed to genuinely capital-L Love playing baseball for a living, exuding a childlike joy of stepping out on the field every day, and 2) relative to other major league baseball players, he kind of sucked. Fast forward three years and one brilliant stint in Korea, and Thames is back in the majors and sitting atop a few favourite sleeper lists. I’m not buying what he’s selling, though. While he always had decent pop, I doubt his ability to hit major league pitching, and he can’t count on too many 87 MPH centre-cut fastballs in the show. ESPN projects for 27 HR/85 RBI/15 SB/.325 OBP/.464 SLG. I’d bet on something more like 22 HR/68 RBI/5 SB/.295 SLG/.405 SLG, which in today’s power- soaked league isn’t all that great.
5. DJ LeMahieu flirts with a 20/20 season, is a top-3 second baseman. LeMahieu, quietly, is already an elite contact hitter and last year did something most uncommon: he walked more, struck out much less, and hit for more power. Now, “more power” is relative, and we’re talking about a guy who in his quiet breakout 2015 season did so with a puny .087 ISO. Last year he brought that all the way up to .147 on the back of 11 home runs. What I’m predicting is, he starts putting a little more loft on those line drives that he stings into the gaps, and maybe pulls a few more balls in the air. He has the discipline and contact skills to be an elite hitter; it’s just a question of his approach. He may sacrifice some average, but it would be worth it to put him into the elite tier of second basemen. Even then, he’d need some luck plus some regression/injuries to the likes of Altuve, Turner, Murphy, Dozier, and Cano in order to crack the top 3.
6. Carlos Carrasco wins the AL Cy Young. Just about the only thing holding Carrasco back the last couple years has been health, because when he’s on the mound, he’s been among the best pitchers in the game. Among qualified starters over the last two seasons, he’s 6th in K/9, 19th in BB/9, and 13th in GB%. We know that strikeouts are good, keeping the ball on the ground is good, and walks are bad. We know Carrasco is among the best at striking out hitters, limiting walks, and getting ground balls. The kicker is he’s only thrown 330 innings over those two seasons, ranking 12th -worst. His teammate and former Cy Young winner Corey Kluber has thrown over 100 innings more over the same time span. If Carrasco can stay healthy (and I don’t think it’s impossible, considering he’s had a multitude of random injuries, nothing that seems overly chronic) and maybe get a bit of luck in the BABIP and HR/FB departments, he’ll deliver the goods.
7. The year of the middle reliever! The world watched as Cleveland broke all the rules and used logic to dictate their reliever usage in the playoffs last season, riding Andrew Miller’s utter dominance to juuuuuuust about winning the damn World Series. And, baseball being the reactionary game that it is, watch as managers try to emulate that, using multi-inning relief studs in high-leverage situations throughout the season. Watch for guys like Chris Devenski, David Phelps, and Delin Betances to pitch up to or even over 100 innings out of the pen, with devastating ratios and strikeout totals.
8. Bryce Harper hits fewer than 25 home runs and steals fewer than 10 bases. After putting up an all-time great season in 2015, our lord and saviour Jesus H Bryce came back down to Earth in a serious way in 2016, dropping from 42 to 24 homeruns and losing over 200 points off of his slugging percentage in the process. He did swipe a career-high 21 bases, but was also caught on 10 attempts which could portend fewer green lights a la Odor. So if you look at his career, that monster year actually looks like the outlier. So, was 2016 the result of injuries or was it a matter of Harper running face-first into the wall of regression?
9. Lance McCullers leads the AL in strikeouts. Pretty self-explanatory, right? McCullers needs some luck on the health tip, but has the heat (his fastball averaged 94MPH in 2016 and actually trended up as the season went on) and decimating curve (which he throws literally half the time and has an insane 20.5% swinging strike rate) to pile up the ks (11.8 per 9 innings last season). Unfortunately he also walked 5 guys per 9, which coupled with the strikeouts means it's a constant struggle for him to clear five or six innings per start. He also only managed to pitch 81 innings due to shoulder problems, which he'll obviously need to improve upon. Even then, toppling noted K artists like Darvish, Carrasco, Kluber, and Archer could be a tall task.
10. Ryan Schimpf leads the NL in home runs. Look, this probably isn’t going to happen. But what if! Schimpf came out of nowhere (aka the minor leagues) and stormed the league as a 27 year old rookie last year, swatting 20 homers in just 89 games. He can probably keep up a .310 ISO over a full season, right?
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